October small-business sales rose while inflation-adjusted sales fell

U.S. small-business sales increased 2.3 percent in October compared with a year earlier, according to Fiserv's November 3 release. But the company's full monthly report puts inflation-adjusted sales down 1.4 percent over the same period. Together, the figures give owners a reason to look beyond the dollar total on their sales dashboard.

Fiserv's transaction-based traffic measure fell 1.2 percent from October 2025, while average spending per transaction rose 3.5 percent. The monthly comparison was more encouraging: sales increased 0.3 percent from September and transactions rose 0.5 percent. These are different comparisons, so improving month-to-month activity can coexist with an annual traffic decline.

What the figures measure

Nominal sales count dollars received. Real sales adjust for changes in prices. Neither figure, by itself, reveals profit after expenses. A business can bring in more revenue while facing higher supply, labor or occupancy costs; the index does not settle what happened to its margin.

Fiserv says its index uses in-store and online point-of-sale activity from approximately two million U.S. small businesses, including card, cash and check transactions. It is a payment-data-based indicator rather than a census of every business. Its traffic measure tracks transactions, not a literal count of everyone entering a store.

There is also a timing caveat. The report comes out before the corresponding official Consumer Price Index data. Fiserv initially uses inflation estimates, including the Cleveland Federal Reserve's headline nowcast, and later incorporates published CPI figures. Its methodology warns that inflation and seasonal adjustments can revise results.

Use the report alongside your own numbers

For holiday planning, compare October revenue with three internal measures: transaction count, average order value and gross margin. If revenue is rising while orders are falling, inspect whether price changes or the mix of products sold explain the difference. That diagnosis is more useful than assuming customer demand has strengthened.

Then review the categories that matter to the business. A service provider and a retailer can face different conditions even when the national headline moves in the same direction. Match comparisons to the same period and account for changes in opening hours, promotions or product availability.

Finally, separate a sales target from a purchasing decision. Before increasing holiday inventory or committing to extra staffing, check recent orders, available cash and the cost of unsold stock. Fiserv's report provides context for those choices; the business's own demand and cost records should determine the plan.